WP8 - Modelling

WP8 - Modelling

The Earth System Models play a significant role in predicting future climate change. Permafrost thaw is one of the processes that is currently still largely missing in the ESM framework.


The aim of WP8 is to implement knowledge and data synthesized in the project into the Earth System Modelling framework and to provide estimates of economic costs of permafrost thaw using Integrated Assessment modelling approach. Currently, despite the vast carbon stocks contained within land and subsea permafrost, it is either not represented at all in ESMs, or limited to a one dimensional description of the land permafrost without lateral exchange (Vonk and Gustafsson, 2013). The neglect of subsea permafrost, in particular, is a major weakness. Both sub-permafrost and intra- permafrost carbon stocks, whether in the form of buried vegetation/soil or as preformed greenhouse gas, are poorly constrained, in terms of distribution, amount and source (McGuire et al. 2009). WP8 aims at addressing these omissions.

The specific objectives of WP8 are:
- O8.1: Implement knowledge and data synthesized in the project into Earth System Models.
- O8.2: Perform modelling and evaluation of CO2 and CH4 fluxes from sub-sea permafrost and coastal permafrost regions on pan-Arctic scale.
- O8.3: Provide projections of permafrost-caused CO2 and CH4 emissions based on several CMIP6 scenarios, as well as estimates of economic costs of these emissions using Integrated Assessment modelling approach.

WP Coordination

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Dr. Victor Brovkin, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

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Description of deliverables

D8.1 Protocol of data exchange between Eatrh System and socio-economic models (IIASA) - Month 12
D8.2 Physical sub-sea permafrost model on pan-Arctic scale (MPG) – Month 48
D8.3 Climate and economic projections for Arctic (IIASA) – Month 59