Most human infrastructure in the Arctic coast is built on permafrost. Permafrost thaw poses a risk to the existing infrastructure and must be taken into account in planning future constructions in the area.
The aim of WP6 is to assess the impacts of permafrost thaw on coastal Arctic infrastructures and to provide a risk evaluation framework to facilitate the development of adaptation and mitigation solutions for permafrost thaw. The approach in WP6 will be based on a risk evaluation methodology directly aligned with the Nunataryuk conceptual framework. Basic process understanding, observational data basis and validated modelling efforts at site and community scales will provide information on the probability of infrastructure failure. Consequences of failure will be evaluated in collaboration with the socio-economic and health related work packages. The product of vulnerability and exposure of coastal infrastructure to the hazard of permafrost thaw yields a risk, which is evaluated based on acceptance criteria and result in implementation actions or lead to an analysis of adaptation options. On the basis of this framework, the work package will develop numerical tools that allow evaluation of stability of existing and new coastal infrastructure in a changing climate with thawing permafrost, decreasing sea ice cover and harsher wave climate.
The specific objectives of WP6 are:
- O6.1: Quantify the impact of permafrost thaw on coastal Arctic infrastructures by means of site investigations and local- scale modelling.
- O6.2: Provide technical basis to build decision support tools for local communities based on advanced multi- disciplinary hazard and risk evaluation frameworks.
Associate Prof. Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Prof. Knut Vilhelm Høyland, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Description of deliverables
D6.1 Survey on circumpolar Arctic infrastructure based on traditional sources and on hazards of coastal erosion (NTNU) - Month 12
D6.2 Report on methods to evaluate structural safety (failure probability) with little and uncertain data (NTNU) - Month 20
D6.3 Report on Multi-disciplinary hazard mapping framework for coastal infrastructure on terrestrial permafrost (DTU) – Month 48
D6.4 Report on calibrated and validated numerical models to estimate site-specific stability of coastal infrastructure in a changing climate with thawing permafrost (NTNU) - Month 48