This paper provides a first comprehensive assessment of the economic value produced on permafrost.
Specifically, the authors present the first pan-Arctic estimation of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) produced on permafrost, which is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at sub-national levels. By combining spatial data showing the permafrost extent data with GRP data and settlement data, they estimate the GRP value produced on each type of permafrost (continuous, discontinuous sporadic, and isolated patches permafrost) in each Arctic Region, which allows them to estimate the share of the total Arctic permafrost GRP which is most likely to be exposed to hazards from permafrost thaw.
The Gross Regional Product (GRP), defined as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at sub-national levels, produced on permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) ranges between € 84 billion and € 189 billion in 2017.
Russia is prevailing in the ACPR economy. About 91–92 % of the total GRP at risk in the ACPR is produced on the Russian territory (permafrost GRP in Russia: €76–174 billion; total permafrost GRP in the ACPR: €84–189 billion). This means many countries depending on Russian ACPR exports will be in trouble in case of reduced economic production due to permafrost thaw, as already illustrated by the current reduction in Russian exports due to the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The estimates provided in this paper are based on economic data from 2017, before the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. These two global disruptions have changed the economy worldwide, especially in Russia due to its military involvement in the war. As a result, they may have caused permanent long-term shifts in potential GDP and GRPs in Russia and possibly in other ACPR countries.
The original published article can be found onlione in here.
